USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.50; (P) 113.01; (R1) 113.35;
USD/JPY is still bounded in range of 112.23/113.70 despite this week’s sharp fall. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, above 113.70 will target 114.20 resistance first. Break there will resume the rise from 111.37 and target 114.73 key resistance next. However, break of 112.23 support will extend the corrective pattern from 114.54 with another decline. Overall, price actions 114.54 are seen as a consolidative pattern. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. Larger rise from 104.62 is expected to resume later.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9903; (P) 0.9945; (R1) 0.9973;
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral with focus on 0.9911 minor support. Break there will confirm completion of the rebound from 0.9862. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.9862. For now, price actions from 1.0128 are viewed as a corrective move. We’d expect strong support from 0.9848 support to bring reversal. On the upside, above 0.9989 will turn bias back to the upside. Break of 1.0008 will target a test on 1.0128 high.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the medium term rally from 0.9186 hasn’t completed yet. Break of 1.0128 will target 1.0342 key resistance next (2016 high). On the downside, break of 0.9848 support will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 0.9541 key support instead.
