USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.07; (P) 106.30; (R1) 106.49;
No change in USD/JPY’s outlook. With 105.31 minor support, further rebound is expected. Rise from 104.62 short term bottom would target 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Hence, we’ll look at the reaction from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 too) to assess the chance. On the downside, below 105.31 minor support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 104.62 and below.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9513; (P) 0.9538; (R1) 0.9558;
USD/CHF’s corrective rise from 0.9186 could still extend higher. However, we’d expect strong resistance from 0.9626 key fibonacci level to limit upside. On the downside, break of 0.9432 support will indicate near term reversal and completion of rebound from 0.9186. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.9186 low. However, sustained break of 0.9626 will be another evidence of larger reversal. In this case, further rise would be seen to next fibonacci level at 0.9900.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.
