USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9951; (P) 0.9977; (R1) 1.0026;
USD/CHF’s pull back from 1.0067 to 0.9926 was much deeper than expected. But subsequent quick and strong rebound saved the bullish case. Intraday bias is now mildly on the upside for 1.0067 first. Break there will resume the larger rise from 0.9186. USD/CHF should then target 61.8% projection of 0.9186 to 1.0056 from 0.9787 at 1.0325, which is close to 1.0342 key resistance. However, break of 0.9926 will dampen the bullish view again.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 is seen as a leg inside the long term range pattern. After drawing support from 55 day EMA, it’s now resuming for 1.0342 key resistance. For now, we’d still cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 0.9787 support is needed to signal completion of the rise. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of deep pull back.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3036; (P) 1.3152; (R1) 1.3233;
GBP/USD’s sharp fall through 1.3102 support suggest that larger decline might be resuming. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.3048 first. Break there will confirm and resume fall from 1.4376 for 1.2874 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.3292 minor resistance will extend the consolidation pattern from 1.3048 with another recovery. But still, upside should be limited by 1.3471 to bring larger decline resumption eventually
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4179). Fall from 1.4376 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 next. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.3048 at 1.3555 is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.
