USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9685; (P) 0.9734; (R1) 0.9822;
USD/CHF rises to as high as 0.9782 so far today as rebound from 0.9541 extends. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.9866 key resistance level, 61.8% retracement of 1.0067 to 0.9541 at 0.9866. Decisive break there will bring retest of 1.0067 high. On the downside, below 0.9700 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and possibly below. But for now, we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggest that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3040; (P) 1.3114; (R1) 1.3153;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point, with focus on 1.30423 resistance turned support. Outlook is unchanged that corrective rise from 1.2661 could have completed at 1.3297, ahead of 1.3316 key fibonacci level. Hence, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3297 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.3042 resistance turned support will bring deeper fall to 1.2784. Break there will argue that larger down trend from 1.4376 is resuming for a new low below 1.2661.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
