USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9558; (P) 0.9621; (R1) 0.9654;
USD/CHF’s decline resumed by taking out 0.9599 and reaches as low as 0.9582 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside as fall from 1.0067 would target 0.9523 fibonacci level. We’d look for bottoming sign there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9699 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming and target 0.9757 resistance.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and below. But for now, we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3169; (P) 1.3233; (R1) 1.3335;
GBP/USD’s rally extends to as high as 1.3297 and there is no sign of topping yet. Focus stays on 1.3316 key fibonacci resistance. Rejection from there and break of 1.3096 support will be in line with our view. And that should indicate completion of corrective rise from 1.2661 and bring retest of this low. Nonetheless, firm break of 1.3315 will extend the rebound to next fibonacci level at 1.3721 instead.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
