USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9647; (P) 0.9662; (R1) 0.9689;
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside. Current fall from 1.0067 should target 0.9523 fibonacci level next. On the upside, break of 0.9678 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9757 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and below. But for now, we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3091; (P) 1.3128; (R1) 1.3197;
GBP/USD hit as high as 1.3164 so far, just inch below 100% projection of 1.2661 to 1.3042 from 1.2784 at 1.3165. At this point, further rise could be seen. But as rise from 1.2661 is seen as a corrective move, upside should be limited by 1.3316 key fibonacci level to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.3042 resistance turn support will argue that rebound from 1.2661 might be completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2784 support to confirm.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
