USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9949; (P) 0.9970; (R1) 0.9998;
USD/CHF’s rally resumed by taking out 0.9980. While upside momentum remains unconvincing as seen in 4 hour MACD, intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.0067 key resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9937 will turn intraday bias neutral again. Also, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9848 support will indicate reversal and turn outlook bearish.
In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2832; (P) 1.2915; (R1) 1.2963;
GBP/USD’s break of 1.2921 confirms resumption of fall from 1.3297. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2661/2784 support zone. Price actions from 1.2661 are viewed as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.2661 will resume larger down trend from 1.4376. On the upside, break of 1.3044 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish even in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
