USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9940; (P) 0.9961; (R1) 0.9981;
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. Some more consolidations could be seen. But as long as 0.9848 support holds, further rise is expected. Above 0.9980 will extend the rally from 0.9541 to 1.0067 key resistance. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9848 will indicate reversal and turn outlook bearish.
In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2919; (P) 1.3004; (R1) 1.3052;
GBP/USD’s fall is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.2921 support. Firm break there will add to the case that corrective rise from 1.2661 has completed. Next target will be 1.2661/2784 support zone. On the upside, above 1.3011 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. Also, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 1.3316 key fibonacci level to bring down trend resumption eventually.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
