USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9986; (P) 1.0017; (R1) 1.0067;
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, a short term top is possibly in place at 1.0094. On the downside, below 0.9968 will extend the decline from 1.0094 into 0.9848/9954 support zone. On the upside, though, break of 1.0094 and sustained trading above 1.0067 will confirm resumption of larger rise from 0.9186 and should target 1.0342 key resistance next.
In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading. However, firm break of 0.9848 near term resistance will dampen this view and bring deeper decline back to 0.9541 support and possibly below.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2932; (P) 1.2986; (R1) 1.3022;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 1.2692 could target 1.3297 resistance zone. But as such rise is seen as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.2661, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.3316 fibonacci level to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.2908 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2692 instead.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
