USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9868; (P) 0.9902; (R1) 0.9927;
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. We’d continue to expect strong support from near term trend line (now at 0.9863) to complete the correction from 1.0056 to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 0.9982 will bring retest of 1.0056 first. However, sustained break of the trend line will argue that it’s a larger scale correction and will target 0.9724 fibonacci level.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3242; (P) 1.3274; (R1) 1.3315;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.3203 temporary bottom. Stronger recovery might be seen. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3617 resistance holds. Fall from 1.4376 is expected to resume later. Below 1.3203 will target 50% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.3161 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2875 next.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken firmly, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 is the next target. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3730) holds, even in case of strong rebound.
