USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9965; (P) 0.9994; (R1) 1.0025;
Upside momentum continues to diminish with 4 hour MACD staying below signal line. But with 0.9937 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF stays on the upside for 1.0037 resistance. Decisive break there will pave the way to 1.0342 key resistance next. On the downside, though, below 0.9937 minor support will indicate short term topping. And, in that case, deeper retreat could be seen to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.9904) and below before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 0.9648 resistance turned support holds, even in case of pull back.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3478; (P) 1.3532; (R1) 1.3578;
Downside momentum in GBP/USD continues to diminish with 4 hour MACD staying above signal line. But with 1.3588 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.3448 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.3588 minor resistance will argue that a short term bottom is formed. In that case, stronger recovery could be seen back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.3725) and above before staging another fall.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). Deeper decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3925) holds, even in case of strong rebound.
