USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9856; (P) 0.9894; (R1) 0.9915;
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for 0.9787 support. Current decline from 0.9989 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.0056. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 0.9720/4 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724, 100% projection of 1.0056 to 0.9787 from 0.9989 at 0.9720) to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9989 will bring retest of 1.0056 high first..
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3230; (P) 1.3273; (R1) 1.3307;
No change in GBP/USD’s outlook as consolidation from 1.3101 is in progress. Further rise could be seen. But upside of recovery should be limited by 1.3471 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.3101 will resume the whole decline from 1.4376 and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.2875 next.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken firmly, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4177). 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 is the next target. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3507) holds, even in case of strong rebound.
