USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9836; (P) 0.9855; (R1) 0.9872;
USD/CHF is staying in tight range above 0.9787 and intraday bias stays neutral first. With 0.9911 minor resistance intact, correction from 1.0056 could extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 0.9724 fibonacci level to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9911 will argue that the pull back from 1.0056 has completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.0056.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3337; (P) 1.3389; (R1) 1.3435;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral with focus on 1.3347 minor support. Firm break there will confirm completion of the corrective rise from 1.3203. Intraday bias would be turn to the downside. And fall from 1.4376 should resume through 1.3203 to 50% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.3161 first, and 61.8% retracement at 1.2875 next. In case of another rally, upside should be limited by 1.3617 resistance to bring reversal.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken firmly, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 is the next target. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3617 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
