USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9921; (P) 0.9943; (R1) 0.9982;
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as sideway trading continues inside range of 0.9855/9991. On the upside, break of 0.9991 will resume the rebound from 0.9787 for 1.0056 high. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 0.9186 for 1.0342 key resistance level. On the downside, below 0.9855 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.0056 with another fall. But in that case, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 is seen as a leg inside the long term range pattern. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. Above 1.0056 will target 1.0342 (2016 high). In that case, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3175; (P) 1.3230; (R1) 1.3262;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral with focus on 1.3189 minor support. Break there will confirm completion of corrective rise from 1.3048. And, intraday bias will be turned back the downside for retesting 1.3048 low first. Break will resume larger fall from 1.4376 for 1.2874 fibonacci level next. In case of another rise through 1.3362, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.3471 to limit upside to finish the corrective rebound.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4179). Fall from 1.4376 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 next. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.3048 at 1.3555 is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.
