USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2920; (P) 1.2962; (R1) 1.2996;
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. For now, as long as 1.2728 support holds, we’ll stay slightly bullish in the pair and expect further rally. Above 1.3046 will resume the rise from 1.2526 and target 1.3124 high next. Nonetheless, break of 1.2728 will indicate completion of the rebound from 1.252. And in that case, deeper fall would be seen back to 1.2526 and below.
In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the case that that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. But there is no follow through upside momentum so far. Focus remains on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.92; (P) 109.32; (R1) 109.93;
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 109.82 minor resistance. Break there will indicate completion of the pull back from 113.39. And that will revive the bullish case that rise from 104.62 is still in progress. Retest of 111.39 should be seen first. On the downside, though, break of 108.10 will extend the fall from 108.10 to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 instead.
In the bigger picture, at this point w;’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this week and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD?JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.
