USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3200; (P) 1.3260; (R1) 1.3291;
USD/CAD retreated sharply after hitting 1.3318 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations would be seen. But near term outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3141 support holds. On the upside, above 1.3318 will extend the rise from 1.2781 to 1.3385 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 1.2061 to 1.3685 fibonacci level next.
In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2754; (P) 1.2787; (R1) 1.2810;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remain neutral first and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 1.2661 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. On the downside, break of 1.2692 will bring retest of 1.2661 first. Firm break there will resume the larger down trend from 1.4376. On the upside, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2864) could extend the consolidation with another rise. But even in case of strong rally, upside should be limited by 1.3316 fibonacci level to bring down trend resumption eventually.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
