USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9850; (P) 0.9916; (R1) 0.9981;
USD/CHF recovers after touching near term rising trend line support. But upside is limited below 0.9982 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. We’d continue to expect strong support from the trend line to complete the correction from 1.0056 to bring rise resumption. Above 0.9982 will bring retest of 1.0056 first. However, sustained break of the trend line will argue that it’s a larger scale correction and will target 0.9724 fibonacci level.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1485; (P) 1.1563 (R1) 1.1616;
With 1.1639 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral. Current decline from 1.2555 is in progress and should target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 first. break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 next. On the upside, above 1.1639 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1822 support turned resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.
