USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2983; (P) 1.3041; (R1) 1.3113;
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for 1.2916 support. Current development suggests rejection by near term channel resistance, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Break of 1.2916 will likely extend the choppy corrective fall from 1.3385 through 1.2781 low. On the upside, break of 1.3132 resistance is now needed to confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will remain on the downside even in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, rejection from the channel resistance from 1.3385 suggests that such corrective fall is not completed yet. And, a new low below 1.2781 would likely be seen. Nevertheless, we’d expect strong support inside 1.2527/1.2723 zone to contain downside to resume the up trend from 1.2061. The support zone represents 50% and 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385. On the upside, break of 1.3132 resistance will target a test on 1.3385 high.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1341; (P) 1.1381; (R1) 1.1408;
EUR/CHF’s break of 1.1392 minor support argues that the corrective rise from 1.1173 has completed at 1.1501. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside. Deeper fall could be seen back to 1.1154/98 key support zone again. At this point, we’d still expect this key support zone to hold. On the upside, above 1.1429 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.1501 first. But still, break there is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside even in case of strong recovery.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1234) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.
