USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2747; (P) 1.2816; (R1) 1.2861;
Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again as rebound from 1.2728 failed well below 1.2996 resistance. For now, we’re still favoring the bullish case that rise from 1.2061 is still in progress. However, above 1.2996 will affirm this year and target 1.3124 and above. However, break of 1.2728 will now dampen our bullish view and turn focus back to 1.2526 support instead.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1775; (P) 1.1818; (R1) 1.1866;
EUR/CHF recovers after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.1445 to 1.2004 at 1.1790. But with 1.1864 support turned resistance intact, deeper fall is expected. Sustained trading below 1.1790 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.1659 and below. Nonetheless, break of 1.1864 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests solid rejection by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, 1.2004 could be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is corrective the up trend from 1.0629. Hence, for now, deeper fall could be seen back to 1.1445, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1479. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound to extend the medium term corrective pattern.
