USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2847; (P) 1.2872; (R1) 1.2907;
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside as rise from 1.2526 is in progress for retesting 1.3124 key resistance. Decisive break there will extend later rebound to 100% projection of 1.2246 to 1.3124 from 1.2526 at 1.3404 next. On the downside, break of 1.2802 support is now needed to indicate near term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1846; (P) 1.1903; (R1) 1.1940;
EUR/CHF’s break of 1.1888 support indicates short term topping at 1.2004, after rejection by 1.2 handle. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for pull back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.1816). For now, such decline is seen as correcting the rise from 1.1445 only. Hence, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1445 to 1.2004 at 1.1790 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.2004 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, we’d expect more corrective trading in near term.
In the bigger picture, long term up trend in EUR/CHF is still in progress. Prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000 was already met but there is no sign of reversal yet. As long as 1.1445 support holds, we’d expect the up trend to extend to 2013 high at 1.2649 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 1.1445 will be an indicate of medium term reversal and will turn outlook bearish.
