USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3131; (P) 1.3175; (R1) 1.3200;
USD/CAD retreated after hitting 1.3216 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. We’re holding on to the view that corrective pull back from 1.3385 has completed at 1.3063 already. Above 1.3216 will bring retest of 1.3385 first. Break will resume larger rally to 1.3685 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.3067 resistance turned support will bring deeper fall to channel support (now at 1.2832).
In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2838) holds, we’ll holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1644; (P) 1.1676; (R1) 1.1732;
Intraday bias remains on the upside in EUR/CHF. The rebound from 1.1366 is expected to extend higher. But such rebound is seen as a corrective move, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1760. On the downside, below 1.1618 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1478 support and below to extend the corrective pattern from 1.2004. However, sustained trading above 1.1760 will pave the way to retest 1.2004 high next.
In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF was solidly rejected by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, 1.2004 should be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is correcting the up trend from 1.0629. Such correction is expected to extend for a while and therefore, we’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.
