USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2924; (P) 1.2996; (R1) 1.3039;
USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3385 resumed by taking out 1.2961 support. More importantly, the break of medium term channel support how carries some bearish implication. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2879 fibonacci level first. Sustained break there will add to the case of medium term reversal and target next fibonacci level at 1.2567. On the upside, break of 1.3102 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will now stay bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, the break of channel support (now at 1.2988), argues that rise from 1.2246, as well as that from 1.2061, has completed at 1.3385. Focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879. Decisive break there will affirm the case of medium term reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2567 and below. That will also put key long term support at 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 into focus. On the upside, break of 1.3385 will revive the bullish case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1417; (P) 1.1433; (R1) 1.1456;
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays on the upside. Current rise from 1.1242 short term bottom is target 1.1489 support turned resistance first. Decisive break there will add to the case of trend reversal ahead of key support zone between 1.1154/98. Further rise should then be seen to 1.1713 resistance. On the downside, below 1.1329 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1242 low instead.
In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1189) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend.
