USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2740; (P) 1.2767; (R1) 1.2806;
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.2732 temporary low. Near term outlook stays bearish for deeper decline. A short term top is ate least formed at 1.3124 with head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.3000; h: 1.3124; rs: 1.2942). Below 1.2732 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2581 next. However, break of 1.2942 will invalidate this bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3214 high.
In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1761; (P) 1.1783; (R1) 1.1797;
No change in EUR/CHF’s outlook. The rebound from 1.1445 might still extend higher. But we’d remain cautious on strong resistance from 1.1832 to bring near term reversal. On the downside, below 1.1730 minor support will turn bias to the downside first. Further break of 1.1649 support will indicate completion of rebound form 1.1445. And the corrective pattern from 1.1832 would then have started the third leg to retest 1.1445. However, firm break of 1.1832 will confirm resumption of larger up trend.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we’d still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.
