USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2860; (P) 1.2954; (R1) 1.3003;
USD/CAD drops sharply to as low as 1.2812 so far today and fall from 1.3385 resumes. With 1.2879 key fibonacci level firmly taken out, such decline should now target next fibonacci level at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support. On the upside, break of 1.3081 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, the firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level argues that whole choppy rebound from 1.2061 has completed at 1.3385 already. Deeper fall would be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support and possibly below. For now, we’re not seeing fall from 1.3385 as resuming larger down trend from 1.4689 (2015 high) yet. Thus, we’ll look for bottoming signal again below 1.2567 .
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7183; (P) 0.7226; (R1) 0.7248;
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Corrective rebound from 0.7084 has completed at 0.7314 already. Deeper fall should be seen to 0.7143 support first. Break should resume whole decline from 0.8135 through 0.7804 support. In case of another rise, upside should be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to complete the correction and bring down trend resumption eventually.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.
