GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3001; (P) 1.3051; (R1) 1.3091;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.2999 temporary top. Overall, near term outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3216 resistance holds. On the downside, below 1.2999 will target 1.2784 support first. Break there will likely resume larger down trend from 1.4376 through 1.2661. However, break of 1.3216 will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 1.3316 key fibonacci resistance.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9805; (P) 0.9831; (R1) 0.9861;
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.0067 to 0.9541 at 0.9866. Decisive break there will bring retest of 1.0067 high. On the downside, below 0.9804 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, focus is now back on 0.9866 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will suggests that pull back from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541. And larger rise from 0.9186 low is ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.0067 will pave the way to 1.0342 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 0.9541 will extend the decline but we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low even in that case.
