GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3076; (P) 1.3125; (R1) 1.3177;
With 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first. On the upside, above 1.3174 will extend the rebound from 1.2692 to 1.3257/3297 resistance zone. As this rise is seen as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.2661, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.3316 fibonacci level to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.2951 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2692 and then 1.2661 key support.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9968; (P) 1.0010; (R1) 1.0067;
USD/CHF recovers quickly after dipping to 0.9952 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. The consolidation pattern from 1.0094 might extend. And break of 0.9952 would target 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0094 at 0.9883. We’d expect strong support from there to contain downside to bring rebound. Rise from 0.9541 is still in favor to resume. Break of 1.0094 will target 1.0342 key resistance next. However, decisive break of 0.9848 support will indicate reversal and turn outlook bearish.
In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading. However, firm break of 0.9848 near term support will dampen this view and bring deeper decline back to 0.9541 support and possibly below.
