GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3323; (P) 1.3362; (R1) 1.3416;
GBP/USD recovers after dipping to 1.3307 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Below 1.3307 will reaffirm the case that corrective rise from 1.3203 has completed. Retest of 1.3203 should then be seen. Break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 50% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.3161 first, and 61.8% retracement at 1.2875 next. Nonetheless, above 1.3424 minor resistance will extend the corrective rise through 1.3471 before completion.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken firmly, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 is the next target. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3617 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9832; (P) 0.9863; (R1) 0.9887;
No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as it’s staying in tight range of 0.9787/9911. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.9911 minor resistance will suggest that the corrective pull back from 1.0056 is already completed. Intraday bias would then be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.0056 first. On the downside, below 0.9787 will extend the correction. But we’d expect strong support from 0.9724 fibonacci level to contain downside and bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.
