USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9655; (P) 0.9678; (R1) 0.9714;
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point, after recovering from 0.9640. As long as 0.9766 resistance holds, outlook remains bearish for deeper decline. Break of 0.9640 will extend the decline from 1.0067 to 200% projection of 1.0067 to 0.9866 from 0.9981 at 0.8579 next. Though, break of 0.9766 will indicate near term reversal and target 0.9866 support turned resistance.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and below. But for now, we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2874; (P) 1.2951; (R1) 1.2995;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point, after failing to take out 1.3042. For now, further rise is mildly in favor as long as 1.2784 minor support holds. Break of 1.3042 will resume the rebound from 1.2661 and target 100% projection of 1.2661 to 1.3042 from 1.2784 at 1.3165. However, as such rebound is seen as a correction, upside should be limited by 1.3316 key fibonacci level to complete the corrective rise and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.2784 will bring retest of 1.2661 low.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4099). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
