GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3048; (P) 1.3085; (R1) 1.3143;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside at this point. Current rebound from 1.2661 is on track to 100% projection of 1.2661 to 1.3042 from 1.2784 at 1.3165, and possibly above. However, such rebound is still seen as a corrective move. Hence, Upside should be limited by 1.3316 key fibonacci level to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.2963 minor support will now argue that rebound from 1.2661 has completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2784 and then 1.2661.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4099). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9633; (P) 0.9675; (R1) 0.9699;
Focus remains on 0.9640 low in USD/CHF. Decisive break there will resume whole fall from 1.0067. Next downside target will be 0.9523 fibonacci level. On the upside, break of 0.9766 resistance is needed to indicate near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and below. But for now, we don’t expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.
