GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3039; (P) 1.3080; (R1) 1.3157;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.3297 resistance. But still, for now, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.3316 key fibonacci level to limit upside to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.3002 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2921 first.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9902; (P) 0.9928; (R1) 0.9947
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for consolidation below 0.9954 temporary low. Deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 0.9954 at 0.9796 to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 0.9954 will target 1.0067 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading.
