GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3523; (P) 1.3566; (R1) 1.3598;
GBP/USD continues to be bounded in right range of 1.3459/3617 and intraday bias remains neutral. More consolidations could be seen. Break of 1.3617 will turn bias to the upside for stronger recovery. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.3459 at 1.3809. On the downside, sustained break of 1.3448 fibonacci level will confirm resumption of whole fall from 1.4376 and target next fibonacci level at 1.2874.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 was almost met. Break there will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3861) holds, even in case of strong rebound.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9968; (P) 1.0004; (R1) 1.0032;
USD/CHF’s retreat was contained at 0.9956 and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. More corrective trading could be seen and below 0.9956 will bring deeper fall. But downside should be contained by trend line support (now at 0.9764) to bring rebound. On the upside, sustained break of 1.0037 will resume recent rise for 1.0342 key resistance next.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds.
