GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3792; (P) 1.3841; (R1) 1.3894;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. With 1.3929 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is still expected in the pair. Break of 1.3711 will resume the decline from 1.4345 through 1.3651 resistance turned support. At this point, we’ll look for strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4345 at 1.3429 to contain downside and bring rebound. However, break of 1.3929 minor resistance will the first sign of near term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.4144 resistance for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9486; (P) 0.9509; (R1) 0.9532;
At this point, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside for further rebound. The head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 0.9254, h: 0.9186, rs: 0.9337) suggests near term reversal. Rise from 0.9186 should target 100% projection of 0.9186 to 0.9490 from 0.9337 at 0.9641 first. On the downside, break of 0.9337 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook will be cautiously bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Current development is raising the chance that it is completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Focus will now be back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add much credence to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.
