GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2785; (P) 1.2857; (R1) 1.2950;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the upside. Rebound from 1.2723 could be another rising leg inside the consolidation pattern from 1.2661. Further rise might be seen to 1.3071 resistance first. But overall, upside should be limited by 1.3316 fibonacci level to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.2764 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2661. Firm break there will resume the larger down trend from 1.4376.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1378; (P) 1.1407; (R1) 1.1432;
EUR/USD is staying in range of 1.1358/1472 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Also, as long as 1.1499 resistance holds, outlook remains bearish. On the downside, break of 1.1358 minor support should bring retest of 1.1215 low first. Break will resume medium term down trend. However, on the upside, firm break of 1.1499 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 resistance again.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top has just resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.
