GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3265; (P) 1.3306; (R1) 1.3336;
GBP/USD’s consolidation from 1.3203 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Further recovery cannot be ruled out. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3617 resistance holds. Fall from 1.4376 is expected to resume later. Below 1.3203 will target 50% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.3161 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2875 next.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken firmly, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 is the next target. We’ll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3730) holds, even in case of strong rebound.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1648; (P) 1.1686 (R1) 1.1732;
EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.1509 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 1.1822/1995 resistance zone to bring fall resumption. Below 1.1509 will target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 next.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.
