GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4016; (P) 1.4131; (R1) 1.4195;
GBP/USD’s fall from 1.4376 accelerates to as low as 1.4039 so far. The strong break of 1.4144 firstly indicate short term topping. And considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, it’s also an early sign of medium term topping. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for 1.3965 support first. Break will pave the way to retest 1.3711 key support level On the upside, above 1.4160 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.4376 instead.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1946 (2016 low) is still in progress . It is at least correcting the long term down trend from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. We’d continue to favor this medium term bullish view as long as 1.3711 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2315; (P) 1.2358 (R1) 1.2386;
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remain neutral at this point. On the upside, above 1.2413 will extend the rebound from 1.2214 to 1.2475 resistance. Break will target 1.2516/2555 key resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 1.2214 will revive the case of trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.
In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.
