GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2825; (P) 1.2925; (R1) 1.3099;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rebound form 1.2692 is in progress for 1.3297 resistance. For now, price actions from 1.2661 are seen as a consolidation pattern. We’d expect strong resistance from 1.3316 fibonacci level to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.2908 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2692 instead.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1407; (P) 1.1428; (R1) 1.1454;
EUR/CHF’s rebound from 1.1343 extends higher and break of 1.1429 turns focus back to 1.1501 resistance. Break there will revive the case of reversal. Further rally would be seen to 1.1713 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.1343 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1154/98 key support zone.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1243) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.
