GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3442; (P) 1.3485; (R1) 1.3515;
GBP/USD’s fall from 1.4376 has finally resumed and it dips to as low as 1.3409 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 50% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.3161 next. On the upside, break of 1.3568 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 should now be firmly taken out. Next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3801) holds, even in case of strong rebound.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1708; (P) 1.1765; (R1) 1.1801;
EUR/CHF’s decline continues today and reaches as low as 1.1717 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.1445 to 1.2004 at 1.1659. Sustained break will target key support level at 1.1445. On the upside, above 1.1770 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1864 support turned resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests solid rejection by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, 1.2004 could be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is correcting the up trend from 1.0629. Hence, for now, deeper fall could be seen back to 1.1445, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1479. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound to extend the medium term corrective pattern.
