USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9901; (P) 0.9933; (R1) 0.9969;
USD/CHF is staying in consolidation in range 0.9855/9991. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 0.9855 will resume the corrective decline from 1.0056, likely through 0.9787 support. But downside should be contained by 0.9722/4 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724, 100% projection of 1.0056 to 0.9787 from 0.9991 at 0.9722) to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 0.9991 will target a test on 1.0056 high.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 is seen as a leg inside the long term range pattern. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. Above 1.0056 will target 1.0342 (2016 high). In that case, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.39; (P) 110.67; (R1) 110.96;
USD/JPY continues to lose upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But there is no sign of topping yet. Intraday bias stays cautiously on the upside for 111.39 high. Break there will also resume the rise from 104.62 and target 114.73 key resistance. On the downside, though, below 110.55 minor will argue that a temporary top is at least formed. More importantly, the corrective pattern from 111.39 could then extend with another down leg. Hence, in that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 109.36 support and below.
In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.