EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1763; (P) 1.1808 (R1) 1.1854;
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the momentum. Current fall from 1.2555 is in progress for 1.1708 medium term fibonacci level next. Break will target 1.1553 support. On the upside, break of 1.1995 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2162) holds.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9990; (P) 1.0005; (R1) 1.0026;
USD/CHF’s consolidation from 1.0056 is still in progress and intraday bias stays neutral. Break of 0.9956 will bring deeper pull back. But in that case, downside should be contained by trend line support (now at 0.9784) to bring rebound. On the upside, sustained break of 1.0037 will resume recent rise for 1.0342 key resistance next.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds.
