EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2275; (P) 1.2316 (R1) 1.2376;
EUR/USD’s break of 1.2335 minor resistance now suggests that pull back from 1.2445 has completed with three waves down to 1.2257. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.2445 resistance first. Break there will resume whole rise from 1.2154. Note again that decisive break of 1.2555 will carry larger bullish implication. On the downside, below 1.2257 will turn bias back to the downside to extend the fall from 1.2555 through 1.2154.
In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9486; (P) 0.9518; (R1) 0.9543;
With a temporary top in place at 0.9550, intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first. Another rise expected as long as 0.9423 holds. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 0.9626 fibonacci level. to limit upside. On the downside, break of 0.9423 will indicate completion of the rebound from 0.9186. And intraday bias would then be turned back to the downside for 0.9356 support and below. Nonetheless, sustained break of 0.9626 will carry larger bullish implications.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Current development is raising the chance that it is completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Focus will now be back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add much credence to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above. However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.
