EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1724; (P) 1.1758 (R1) 1.1783;
EUR/USD lost momentum after hitting 1.1790, with 4 hour MACD dropped below signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. As noted before, rise from 1.1507 is seen as a corrective pattern. Hence, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring reversal. On the downside, below 1.1679 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.1507 low first.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9872; (P) 0.9902; (R1) 0.9945;
USD/CHF recovered just ahead of 0.9855 support and is staying in range of 0.9855/9991. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.9855 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.0056 with another fall to 0.9787 and below. Nonetheless, we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 0.9991 will target a test on 1.0056 high.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 is seen as a leg inside the long term range pattern. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. Above 1.0056 will target 1.0342 (2016 high). In that case, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.
