EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1652; (P) 1.1696 (R1) 1.1766;
EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.1509 and outlook is unchanged. Further rise cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside , firm break of 1.1507 will resume larger down trend through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3075; (P) 1.3183; (R1) 1.3251;
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for 1.3063. Break will extend the corrective fall fro 1.3385 to 100% projection of 1.3385 to 1.3063 from 1.3289 at 1.2967. But we’d expect strong support from rising channel line (now at 1.2878) to contain downside and bring rebound. Larger rally from 1.2061 is expected to resume later.
In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2878) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.
