EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1652; (P) 1.1721 (R1) 1.1766;
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Current decline from 1.2555 would target 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 next. Though, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1829 minor resistance will suggest short term bottoming. And, lengthier consolidation would be seen in this case, before staging another fall.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2076) holds.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3289; (P) 1.3366; (R1) 1.3427;
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside with 1.3441 minor resistance intact. Current fall from 1.4376 is still in progress for 50% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.3161. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.2874. On the upside, 1.3441 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another decline.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4249). 38.2% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.3448 should now be firmly taken out. Next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.2874 and below. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.3761) holds, even in case of strong rebound.
