EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1580; (P) 1.1615; (R1) 1.1661;
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. With 1.1525 minor support intact, rebound from 1.1300 could extend higher. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 1.1525 will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1300 low. Overall, price actions from 1.1300 are forming a corrective pattern, that could extend for a while before completion.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1265; (P) 1.1289; (R1) 1.1308;
EUR/CHF’s breach of 1.1265 minor support dampen the bullish view and argue that rebound from 1.1178 has completed at 1.1342. Intraday bias is turned back to 1.1154/98 key support. We’d still expect strong support from this key zone to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.1342 will revive the case of near term reversal and target 1.1452 resistance.
In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1196) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.
