EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1770; (P) 1.1804 (R1) 1.1831;
Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral for consolidation above 1.1762. Near term outlook remains bearish with 1.1995 resistance intact and further decline is expected. Below 1.1762 will resume the fall from 1.2555 for 1.1708 medium term fibonacci level next. Break will target 1.1553 support.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further. Break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 will target 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.2162) holds.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1775; (P) 1.1818; (R1) 1.1866;
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral for consolidation above 1.1770 temporary low. With 1864 support turned resistance intact, deeper fall is expected. Break of 1.1770 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1445 to 1.2004 at 1.1659 and below. Nonetheless, break of 1.1864 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests solid rejection by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, 1.2004 could be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is corrective the up trend from 1.0629. Hence, for now, deeper fall could be seen back to 1.1445, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1479. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound to extend the medium term corrective pattern.
