EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1682; (P) 1.1711 (R1) 1.1758;
EUR/USD is staying in range above 1.1507/9 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out as the consolidation extends. But in that case, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside , firm break of 1.1507 will resume larger down trend through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1605; (P) 1.1621; (R1) 1.1646;
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery. But another fall is still in favor with 1.1653 minor resistance intact. We’re holding on to the view that corrective rebound from 1.1366 has completed with three waves up to 1.1713 already. Below 1.1593 will target 1.1478 support to confirm this case. However, above 1.1653 minor resistance will bring another rise. But in that case, we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1760 to bring near term reversal.
In the bigger picture, 1.2004 is seen as a medium term top with bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. 1.2000 is also an important resistance level. Hence, the corrective pattern from 1.2004 is expected to extend for a while before completion. We’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.
