EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1661; (P) 1.1698; (R1) 1.1732;
At this point, the rebound from 1.1300 is still in progress and further rise would be seen. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779 to limit upside, at least on first attempt, to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1529 minor will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1300 low. After all, consolidation from 1.1300 will extend for a while before completion.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we’d expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1406; (P) 1.1431; (R1) 1.1444;
A temporary top is in place at 1.1452 in EUR/CHF with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. For now, further rise is expected as long as 1.1363 minor support holds. Above 1.1452 will extend the rebound from 1.1242 short term bottom to 1.1489 support turned resistance first. Decisive break there will add to the case of trend reversal ahead of key support zone between 1.1154/98. However, on the downside, below 1.1329 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1242 low instead.
In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1189) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend.
