EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1312; (P) 1.1334 (R1) 1.1367;
EUR/USD recovers notably after hitting 1.1300. But still as long as 1.1430 minor resistance holds, further decline is expected, to 61.8% projection of 1.2413 to 1.1509 from 1.1745 at 1.1186. Note that it’s a cluster level with 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Hence, we’ll tentatively look for short term bottoming around 1.1186. Meanwhile, considering mildly bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1430 will indicate short term bottoming. In that case, lengthier consolidation would be seen first before down trend resumption.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.2555 medium term is in progress for 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. Note again that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Sustained break of 1.1186 could pave the way back to retest 1.0339 low. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1851 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1243; (P) 1.1275; (R1) 1.1306;
As long as 1.1354 minor resistance holds, further decline is expected in EUR/CHF to key support zone at 1.1154/98. We’d expect strong support from there to contain downside to complete the whole decline from 1.2004. Meanwhile, considering mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1354 will indicate short term bottoming. Stronger rebound should then be seen towards 1.1489 support turned resistance.
In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone, 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1173) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend.
