EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2078; (P) 1.2105 (R1) 1.2156;
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.2054 temporary low. In case of stronger recovery upside should be limited by 1.2214 support turned resistance to bring another decline. Below 1.2054 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1991 first. Break will target 200% projection at 1.1891.
In the bigger picture, current decline and firm break of 1.2154 support confirms rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. A medium term top should be in place at 1.2555 and deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. We’ll look at the structure and momentum of such decline before decision if it’s an impulsive or corrective move.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1961; (P) 1.1972; (R1) 1.1993;
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for consolidation below 1.2004 temporary top. Deeper retreat could be seen. But after all, further rally is expected as long as 1.1888 minor support holds. Decisive break of break of 1.2 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.0629 to 1.1832 from 1.1445 at 1.2188. However, consider bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1888 will indicate short term topping. In that case, deeper pull back would be seen back to 1.1445/1832 support zone.
In the bigger picture, long term up trend in EUR/CHF is still in progress. Prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2003 was already met but there is no sign of reversal yet. As long as 1.1445 support holds, we’d expect the up trend to extend to 2013 high at 1.2649 next.
