EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2277; (P) 1.2303 (R1) 1.2347;
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first, with focus on 1.2344 minor resistance. Break there will indicate that the decline from 1.2475 has completed and turn bias back to the upside for this resistance. Break will target a test on 1.2555 high. On the downside, below 1.2214 will target 1.2154 key support first. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci resistance.
In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1764; (P) 1.1781; (R1) 1.1797;
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral first. Even in case of another rise, we’ll remain cautious on strong resistance from 1.1832 to bring near term reversal. On the downside, below 1.1730 minor support will turn bias to the downside first. Further break of 1.1649 support will indicate completion of rebound form 1.1445. And the corrective pattern from 1.1832 would then have started the third leg to retest 1.1445. However, firm break of 1.1832 will confirm resumption of larger up trend.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we’d still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.
